Say goodbye to your discs for good
On November 19th, Microsoft rolls out it's Xbox 360 software upgrade, New Xbox Experience ("NXE"). It looks pretty sharp and improves on some serious interface flaws.
But interface upgrades and avatars are just sauce. The real meat lies in the new features. The day it debuts, I'll be able to stream Netflix' online content directly to the Xbox and watch on my TV, from the oh-so-comfortable position on my couch, as though I were watching a DVD and not an .mov.
This got me thinking about how little I watch DVDs versus downloads and internet streams, which got me thinking about how glad I am I didn't jump into the Blu-ray / HD-DVD format war. I then wondered about Blu-ray's livelihood. It was just a few weeks ago we heard Steve Jobs dismiss it as a "bag of hurt" - and it's not even a new format.
With all of this looking forward and looking back, my slow-to-respond brain starting putting pieces together and making projections. Here's how I see things shaking up in the short--to-mid-term.
Present: Xbox 360, NXE & Netflix
NXE includes the ability to stream all of Netflix' online library directly to / through your 360 console. All you need is a qualifying Netflix subscription and an Xbox Live Gold membership, which can be had for $40 for 13 months (1 free with the year), or a little over $3/month.
A quick primer on Netflix streaming: Netflix has a fairly robust catalog of online content, and until recently content had only been available on PCs, and by the end of this year Macs. This past summer, Roku released its Netflix box which, for $99, pulls in content and outputs directly to your television, with no more complex a hook-up than your typical cable box.
So: content provider (Netflix) streams content directly to you through compatible hardware (PC, Mac [soon], Roku box). And in just a few weeks, Xbox 360's will be added to the compatible hardware list.
Past: Formats, hardware, and modular content
This new addition of previously undefined (though not incompatible) hardware devices, I believe, marks the death of the physical formatting of content. That is to say, while hardwares, compatibilities, and playback will continue to be standard issues, content will no longer be bound to formatting restraints.
It's a little obvious and very evident; modular content has been on the wane for a few years. You can already (legally) download or stream hundreds of thousands of songs, movies, and television shows - the iTunes store has sold over a billion downloads alone - directly to your computer. CDs gone and DVDs are almost there. And Blu-ray, while still young, isn't being adopted as quickly or as readily as it needs to live a full lifecycle. But my guess is this is the tipping point at which we will look back and point to when discussing the end of "format wars". And in terms of participants, I believe Blu-ray will be the last modular, physical format for all of our entertainment consumption.
NXE's arrival is delivering another major blow to modular content with the advent of downloading and ripping new, full-featured Xbox 360 games directly to your 360's hard drive. All three of the current gen systems - 360, PS3, and Wii - have the ability to download games but most of the selections are older or smaller, indie titles. And until now, none of them had the (legal) ability to rip titles straight from discs. The method of downloading will likely eclipse - and I believe eventually eliminate - physical discs for gaming altogether. So while platform specs requirements will remain, they'll be purely for basic compatibility. (Proprietary constraints will be around for some time, but perhaps we'll see eventual intercompatibilities, like running Windows on a Mac.)
Future: Subscription-based services
So we're moving away from designated 'media centers' and spreading into - almost retrofitting - existing systems, like game boxes. Even some Blu-ray players will be capable of streaming the very same Netflix content. Soon, all of our proprietary hardware systems will have a standard Ethernet port, making it more ubiquitous than USB.
This will lead to more subscription based entertainment services, like Netflix. You already subscribe to your internet, cable, and phone services as utilities. Now you'll be subscribing to all of the content that flows through the pipes, similar to premium cable channels like HBO and Showtime. All that's needed to sustain it are fat enough pipes to provide higher quality content from service providers that don't limit throughputs.
Where do we go from there? Since we're already at the brink of what our eyes can perceive, in terms of quality, streaming and throughputs will need to catch up and more readily provide HD quality. Netflix on Xbox 360's will be standard def to start, just like the Roku box. As soon as Netflix flips their switch and outputs HD, both Roku's and Xbox's will be ready to receive.
The question that remains is how will all content and service providers afford infrastructures that support downloading and streaming current HD quality content? Or are we waiting on a major breakthrough in technology to rethink how data is transmitted at its most base level?
This got me thinking about how little I watch DVDs versus downloads and internet streams, which got me thinking about how glad I am I didn't jump into the Blu-ray / HD-DVD format war. I then wondered about Blu-ray's livelihood. It was just a few weeks ago we heard Steve Jobs dismiss it as a "bag of hurt" - and it's not even a new format.
With all of this looking forward and looking back, my slow-to-respond brain starting putting pieces together and making projections. Here's how I see things shaking up in the short--to-mid-term.
Present: Xbox 360, NXE & Netflix
NXE includes the ability to stream all of Netflix' online library directly to / through your 360 console. All you need is a qualifying Netflix subscription and an Xbox Live Gold membership, which can be had for $40 for 13 months (1 free with the year), or a little over $3/month.
A quick primer on Netflix streaming: Netflix has a fairly robust catalog of online content, and until recently content had only been available on PCs, and by the end of this year Macs. This past summer, Roku released its Netflix box which, for $99, pulls in content and outputs directly to your television, with no more complex a hook-up than your typical cable box.
So: content provider (Netflix) streams content directly to you through compatible hardware (PC, Mac [soon], Roku box). And in just a few weeks, Xbox 360's will be added to the compatible hardware list.
Past: Formats, hardware, and modular content
This new addition of previously undefined (though not incompatible) hardware devices, I believe, marks the death of the physical formatting of content. That is to say, while hardwares, compatibilities, and playback will continue to be standard issues, content will no longer be bound to formatting restraints.
It's a little obvious and very evident; modular content has been on the wane for a few years. You can already (legally) download or stream hundreds of thousands of songs, movies, and television shows - the iTunes store has sold over a billion downloads alone - directly to your computer. CDs gone and DVDs are almost there. And Blu-ray, while still young, isn't being adopted as quickly or as readily as it needs to live a full lifecycle. But my guess is this is the tipping point at which we will look back and point to when discussing the end of "format wars". And in terms of participants, I believe Blu-ray will be the last modular, physical format for all of our entertainment consumption.
NXE's arrival is delivering another major blow to modular content with the advent of downloading and ripping new, full-featured Xbox 360 games directly to your 360's hard drive. All three of the current gen systems - 360, PS3, and Wii - have the ability to download games but most of the selections are older or smaller, indie titles. And until now, none of them had the (legal) ability to rip titles straight from discs. The method of downloading will likely eclipse - and I believe eventually eliminate - physical discs for gaming altogether. So while platform specs requirements will remain, they'll be purely for basic compatibility. (Proprietary constraints will be around for some time, but perhaps we'll see eventual intercompatibilities, like running Windows on a Mac.)
Future: Subscription-based services
So we're moving away from designated 'media centers' and spreading into - almost retrofitting - existing systems, like game boxes. Even some Blu-ray players will be capable of streaming the very same Netflix content. Soon, all of our proprietary hardware systems will have a standard Ethernet port, making it more ubiquitous than USB.
This will lead to more subscription based entertainment services, like Netflix. You already subscribe to your internet, cable, and phone services as utilities. Now you'll be subscribing to all of the content that flows through the pipes, similar to premium cable channels like HBO and Showtime. All that's needed to sustain it are fat enough pipes to provide higher quality content from service providers that don't limit throughputs.
Where do we go from there? Since we're already at the brink of what our eyes can perceive, in terms of quality, streaming and throughputs will need to catch up and more readily provide HD quality. Netflix on Xbox 360's will be standard def to start, just like the Roku box. As soon as Netflix flips their switch and outputs HD, both Roku's and Xbox's will be ready to receive.
The question that remains is how will all content and service providers afford infrastructures that support downloading and streaming current HD quality content? Or are we waiting on a major breakthrough in technology to rethink how data is transmitted at its most base level?
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